Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
