Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
